Wednesday, 24 October 2012

Player profiles: shooting

Introduction

In my last post, I looked at creating player profiles for passing. I am convinced that the concept of player profiles in different areas is valuable, although I recognise that the profiles created were just a first iteration - more work is undoubtedly needed. In large the difficulty lies in striking a balance between the precision with which players can be grouped (more factors considered is better) and the simplicity of the final profile (describing a player's style as succinctly as possible).
This post provides a first iteration at a shooting profile. As for the passing profile, the aim is not to evaluate the success of a player's shooting; instead it is to find an objective measure of the style of play employed.

Factors

As with passing, the factors are divided into three categories:
  • Involvement: this is the most similar to its equivalent in the passing profile. The ratio of player's shots per minute to team's shots per minute is compared. A value in the top 20% of players is called "focal", one in the bottom 20% is "peripheral".
  • Location: The MCFCAnalytics dataset divides the shots into, among other splits,inside and outside penalty area. This factor is the proportion of shots that is taken from inside the area - the top 20% of players are described as "outside", the bottom 20% as "inside".
  • Behaviour: This subdivides into the following
    • Head - The proportion of shots taken with the head. Top 20% are called "head", there is no category for the bottom 20%
    • Feet - 1 point for each shot taken with the right foot, -1 point for each shot taken with the left foot. The average is then found, the top 20% are "right", bottom, "left"
    • Phase - This is subdivided even further to take set pieces into account. There is no description for the bottom 20% in each of these categories
      • Open play - The proportion of shots taken in open play, top 20% "open play"
      • Corner - The proportion of shots taken from corners, top 20% "corner"
      • Throw-in - The proportion of shots taken from throw-ins, top 20% "Throw-in"
      • Direct free kick - The proportion of shots taken from direct free kicks, top 20% "Direct free kick"

Observations 

  • As might be expected, the vast majority of players in the "focal" category are strikers. Exceptions among players who played more than 900 minutes are Gareth Bale, Chris Eagles, Jordi Gomez, James Morrison,  Charles N'Zogbia, Jamie O'Hara, Martin Petrov, Stephane Sessegnon, Gylfi Sigurdsson, Scott Sinclair, Adel Taarabt, Ashley Young, Rafael van der Vaart. None of these players fell into the "inside" category; 4 (Eagles, Morrison, O'Hara and Taarabt) are "outside"
  • No strikers fall into the "outside" category
  • The players in the "head" category are as might be expected - a number of central defenders, as well as the likes of Tim Cahill, Andy Carroll, Peter Crouch, Kevin Davies, Marouane Fellaini, Emile Heskey, Grant Holt, Kenwyne Jones
  • The most right footed shooter is Antonio Valencia, who had 25 shots with his right foot and zero with his left; the most left footed shooter is Barry Bannan - 24 left footed shots, 0 right footed
  • Only 20 players are "corner" but not "head". Of these, only 4 are "inside" - Rio Ferdinand, Gael Givet, Stephen Kelly and Zat Knight. It is notable that only 1 of Zat Knight's  7 shots was with his head - he is 6 ft 6 in
  • Only Emmanuel Adebayor, Darren Bent, Gael Givet and Stephen Warnock are "throw-in", "inside" but not "head"
  •  While 37 players are "left" and "direct free kick", only 13 are "right" and "direct free kick"

A comparison of the leading goalscorers from 2011/12 

The styles of Robin van Persie ("focal, left, direct free kick") and Sergio Aguero ("focal, throw-in") can be compared. The only label that each player has in common is "focal". Notable differences between the players are in the use of each foot - Sergio Aguero's preference for his right foot is not especially strong whereas Robin van Persie's preference for his left foot is - and the phases where shots are taken - Aguero takes shots from throw-ins frequently, van Persie shoots from direct free kicks frequently.

Conclusions

As with the passing piece mentioned earlier, I believe there is certainly a place for a shooting profile for each player, to be used to objectively compare the style of a given set of players. However, also as with the passing piece, I am aware that this work is not a finished product and that some polish is needed.

It should also be pointed out that showing general results for this work is not straightforward, however I hope the van Persie/Aguero comparison shows some of the value that this work holds beyond simple anecdotes in the "Observations" section.

Please comment below with suggestions, or tweet me.

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