Introduction
The principals of opponent-adjustment have been discussed at length on this site before. In this piece of work, mean opponent-adjusted margins (MOAM) are calculated for each Division 1 team in college football for the 2013 season. The calculation of this metric only considers games against other Division 1 teams -- FCS opponents are not included. Following this, and the calculation of the standard deviation of performances by each team, the winner of each bowl game can be forecast, as well as a probability of that forecast being correct.
MOAM
The mean opponent-adjust margin for each Division 1 team is shown below:
The probabilities for each of the bowls is given below. Projected winners are shown in bold.
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